Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 11.441481 13.389186 15.515551 18.002462 20.824054 23.918556 27.561599
2024-12-29 8.517732 11.195431 14.408663 18.515797 23.589842 29.614601 37.267131
2025-01-05 6.542256 9.515539 13.384856 18.711231 25.763230 34.680923 46.695618
2025-01-12 5.140709 8.187887 12.447807 18.699396 27.474490 39.164756 55.687792
2025-01-19 4.152951 7.185751 11.707642 18.728656 29.094522 43.529518 64.767334
2025-01-26 3.734086 6.927398 11.950482 20.117392 32.674967 50.787005 78.285642
2025-02-02 3.292070 6.531221 11.892812 20.994830 35.525908 57.167646 90.972751
2025-02-09 2.919558 6.172515 11.820492 21.799205 38.285424 63.560497 104.057854
2025-02-16 2.481503 5.604388 11.299166 21.775627 39.687945 67.948084 114.372802
2025-02-23 2.045132 4.947131 10.512922 21.180489 40.056750 70.696203 122.279878
2025-03-02 1.660730 4.310533 9.659362 20.339890 39.890949 72.519699 128.774953
2025-03-09 1.431364 3.956429 9.288858 20.323481 41.121189 76.662845 139.186974
2025-03-16 1.196132 3.545171 8.757595 19.968627 41.769686 79.974649 148.625418
2025-03-23 1.100807 3.452120 8.880353 20.917479 44.904486 87.768576 166.062107
2025-03-30 0.973019 3.245975 8.723399 21.273587 46.941021 93.761365 180.760632
2025-04-06 0.842393 2.998953 8.432983 21.309463 48.349590 98.709585 193.911632
2025-04-13 0.731657 2.778514 8.167108 21.359506 49.776150 103.759871 207.493764
2025-04-20 0.712025 2.826873 8.563197 22.919693 54.374681 114.924533 232.542410
2025-04-27 0.664522 2.776149 8.701328 23.903093 57.850612 124.166194 254.540233
2025-05-04 0.617250 2.714202 8.800422 24.802811 61.212174 133.364235 276.877299
2025-05-11 0.538925 2.523552 8.525034 24.776771 62.587469 138.802848 292.502600
2025-05-18 0.449844 2.264666 8.014972 24.111840 62.505764 141.370455 302.849347
2025-05-25 0.366695 1.997062 7.427589 23.172050 61.716988 142.460429 310.406675